2026 International Soccer Tournament Predictions
International football tournament 2026 predictions: our picks, dark horses and best bets
This summer, the biggest quadrennial soccer tournament in the world returns and It's All at Stake! Keep up to date with our regular coverage of the event as national teams go head-to-head in the United States and North America for a chance to make history. All matches in the 2026 international football tournament are available to bet on when you join Stake Sportsbook, with the latest soccer betting odds now live. Use our picks and analysis here at Stake when making your bets to have the best odds of selecting the right picks this summer.
Our outright winner prediction for the biggest 2026 global football tournament
Many great teams are competing in this football tournament, but our pick to win is France. After winning the tournament in 2018, most had France as the favourites to win in 2022. However, they were undone in the final, with Mbappe’s hat-trick cancelled out by Messi’s brilliance. This year, we think France will do enough to win, as they have arguably the strongest squad, which includes the likes of Kylian Mbappe, William Saliba, Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembele and Aurelien Tchouameni. Learn more about outright betting and how you can place soccer bets in our Stake guides.
Dark horses and outright value picks
While France and Spain are joint favourites to win the tournament, there are many other teams that potentially offer better value. Dark horses have the potential to outperform the odds, providing increased value. Here are our dark horse picks for this summer’s tournament:
Norway: why their qualifying form translates to a deep run
Norway is an interesting bet at this tournament. They won their UEFA qualifying group with a perfect record, scoring 37 goals thanks to the performances of top players Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard. This will be Norway’s first appearance in the tournament since 1998, but if they keep up their performances, they have a chance to upset the odds. Still, they have a difficult group to get out of, with France and Senegal providing tough opposition.
Morocco: the 2022 semi-finalists worth backing again
Morocco are another potential dark horse, having impressed at the 2022 World Cup, where they reached the semi-finals. They became the first African nation to qualify for the 2026 tournament, with a perfect record of 8 wins in their group. Morocco also technically won the 2026 AFCON tournament, although this was controversial after Senegal were ruled to have forfeited the match. They have a talented squad, with several players at the highest level, such as Hakim Ziyech and Achraf Hakimi. They face Brazil, Scotland and Haiti in the group stage.
Ecuador: a defensive outsider built for hot conditions
Ecuador are a major outsider according to the current odds, but they have the potential to surprise people. Their CONMEBOL qualifying campaign saw them finish 2nd, losing just twice while only conceding 5 goals in 18 games. Their strong defence and tolerance of hot conditions could give them an edge against many sides if key players like Moises Caicedo and Piero Hincapie perform well. Ecuador will face Germany, the Ivory Coast and Curacao in their group, giving them a good chance of progressing.
Teams to fade: who'll underperform their odds
Brazil - Brazil have won the tournament 5 times, making them the most successful nation in the history of the competition. However, they haven’t won since 2002 and have struggled in recent seasons, going out in the quarter-finals the last 2 times. Although they have some talented players, they’re still a long way off the historic Brazil sides of old. We expect them to underperform their odds and go out in the quarterfinals, despite being coached by the legendary Carlo Ancelotti.
Argentina - Argentina won the tournament in 2022, beating France on penalties thanks to the individual brilliance of players like Messi and Di Maria. Although Messi hasn’t retired yet, he’s not the player he once was, and it’s hard to see Argentina progressing past the quarterfinals with their current squad. Too many aging stars haven’t been replaced, and this could see them struggle.
Germany - Germany is another team with great pedigree in this tournament, having lifted the trophy on 4 occasions. However, they went out in the group stage in 2018 and 2022. While they undoubtedly have some talented players and a new head coach that could make the difference, we don’t expect them to reach the quarterfinals.
Outright winner odds and tournament futures markets
The sports betting odds are subject to change once the tournament gets underway on 11 June, but right now these are our favourites to win outright:
France
Spain
England
Brazil
Meanwhile, the odds to win the Golden Boot have these 3 as the favourites:
Kylian Mbappe (France)
Harry Kane (England)
Lionel Messi (Argentina)
Kylian Mbappe is the favourite to win the competition’s Golden Boot award for scoring the most goals. The Real Madrid and France forward won the award at the 2022 World Cup with 8 goals, which included a hat-trick in the final. France faces Iraq in the group stage, which could be a good chance for Mbappe to score multiple goals.
Harry Kane is just behind Mbappe in the current odds for the Golden Boot. The England and Bayern Munich striker has previously won the award at the 2018 World Cup. England will face Panama in the group stage, the best chance for Kane to increase his goal tally.
Meanwhile, Inter Miami and Argentina star Lionel Messi is currently the third-favourite to win the Golden Boot. Messi is Argentina’s all-time top goalscorer with 116 goals in 198 games. He’ll have a good chance to score multiple goals in the group stage when Argentina face Jordan.
Group of death and toughest draws
While there isn’t an agreed-upon “group of death” at this tournament, Group I and Group L are possibly the toughest groups.
Group I features France, Senegal, Norway and Iraq. While Iraq isn’t a particularly strong team, Norway is a dark horse contender thanks to an excellent qualifying campaign. Meanwhile, Senegal made the knockout round in 2022 and just won the AFCON in January. France reached the final in 2022 and were crowned world champions in 2018.
Group L also has some tough matchups. England last won the competition in 1966 but finished 4th in 2018 and reached the quarter-finals in 2022. They’ll have to face Croatia, which lost the 2018 final and finished 3rd in 2022. The group also features Ghana and Panama, which are tough sides.
Easiest paths to the Round of 32
Belgium arguably have one of the easiest paths to the round of 32. Their group features Iran, Egypt and New Zealand, with Iran being the only other team in that group ranked within the top 20.
Argentina are the defending champion after beating France in the 2022 final. They have a straightforward group, facing Algeria, Austria and Jordan.
Germany has a relatively simple path to the knockout round too, facing the lowest-ranked team in the tournament, Curaçao, alongside Ecuador and the Ivory Coast. However, Ecuador is one of our dark horse picks and could upset the odds.
Group stage upset picks
It’s hard to see any of the top teams failing to get out of the groups at this tournament, with most groups being relatively balanced. However, we think that Brazil vs Morocco could potentially result in an upset, as Morocco have been underrated while Brazil have struggled at recent tournaments.
Ecuador vs Germany could also upset the odds, with Germany currently highly favoured to win the match. However, Ecuador has looked strong during the qualification process and could give Germany a very tough game.
Knockout bracket predictions
A lot can happen between now and the knockout rounds, but we’ve outlined some of our key predictions for the tournament bracket.
Predicted Round of 32 and Round of 16 matchups
In the round of 32, top teams usually face third-place teams, giving them the best chance of progressing, while 2nd place teams face each other. Some intriguing matchups in the round of 32 could include Uruguay vs Norway, Ecuador vs Japan and Korea Republic vs Sweden.
In the round of 16, we’re predicting some evenly matched matches, with big games like Portugal vs England, Spain vs France and Germany vs Netherlands.
Quarter-final and semi-final picks
In our predicted quarter-finals, we’re picking Morocco to advance against Brazil, the Netherlands to beat Ecuador, France to beat Norway and England to beat Argentina.
For the semifinals, we’ve picked the Netherlands to defeat Morocco and France to edge past England.
Our predicted final and score prediction
Our final prediction is France to beat the Netherlands 2-0.
Golden Boot picks beyond the favourites
Predictably, Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane are the current favourites to win the Golden Boot, with Lionel Messi just behind them. All three have won the award previously, and are known for being terrific goal scorers while also having a great chance of going on a deep run in the tournament. However, there are a couple of options outside the favorites which could be worth picking:
Erling Haaland - Haaland has been one of the top strikers in world football over the past 6 seasons, impressing for Borussia Dortmund and Manchester City. In the Premier League, he now has 112 goals in 132 appearances. His form has also been impressive for Norway, who will go into this tournament as one of the potential dark horses. Should Norway manage a run to the knockout stages. Haaland has a good chance of winning the Golden Boot, even if they don’t win the competition.
Lamine Yamal - Yamal may only be 18 years old, but he’s already won multiple domestic and international trophies for Barcelona and Spain, including Euro 2024, where he became the youngest goalscorer in the competition. This season, Yamal scored 24 goals in all competitions for Barcelona. Spain has a great chance of winning the competition, and Yamal will be one of their key players.
Ousmane Dembele - France are one of the favourites and our pick to win the tournament. While Kylian Mbappe is their star man, he’s been out of form so far this season, while Ousmane Dembele has never looked better. He won the Ligue 1 player of the year award this season, while also scoring 8 goals and helping his team win the Champions League. If France does well, he has a chance to finish as the top scorer ahead of Mbappe.
Player props and value bets
You can bet on lots of different markets during this tournament, including player props like first goalscorer, bookings and much more. When looking for value, pay attention to all the available betting options and make use of the latest stats. Our guide to how to read sports betting odds is essential reading if you want to get the best value.
Player props worth backing
There are some interesting player props worth backing on games such as Spain vs Cape Verde. 2010 world champions Spain will be playing a team making their debut in the competition, which is a great opportunity to grab lots of goals. We’re backing Lamine Yamal to score 2+ goals in this game. Learn how prop betting works in our complete guide.
Best value bets on the outright market
Consider each team's potential bracket positioning when choosing your outright bets. For example, the bracket we predicted has the Netherlands and Germany with a relatively easy path to the final compared to, say, England and Argentina.
When trying to get value, you want to ignore past results and look at current form and stats. We have to say that Norway, Morocco and Portugal look to be good picks for the outright market based on recent form and current odds.
Our tournament parlay and longshot picks
Our tournament parlay is for Germany, Scotland, Spain, Norway and France to win their group-stage opener. This 5-leg multi bet is eligible for Stake Shield, which will protect you if one or more legs lose if you have it active. Check out the parlay betting and Stake Shield guide for more information.
Ecuador is our longshot pick. While they’re not favoured by the current odds, we think their style of play will give them a good chance of progressing through the knockout stages. The tournament is likely to be slow-paced in the high temperatures, which will benefit their defensive style.
Where to bet on the 2026 international football tournament
Stake offers the best place to bet on the 2026 international football tournament, providing competitive odds on all matches, novelty markets, and amazing betting promotions. Check out the outright, pre-match and live betting markets and join the VIP Club to unlock rewards by placing bets. The VIP FAQ page has more details on how you can benefit from rakeback, reload bonuses, and your own VIP host.
